Most Houston ISD campuses have reported sharper enrollment declines since the controversial state takeover, with New Education System schools reporting some of the largest drops compared to previous years.
HISD, like many urban school districts nationwide, has seen a steady decline in enrollment for nearly a decade. However, a Chronicle analysis of Texas Education Agency enrollment data shows that the rate of enrollment declines in HISD has accelerated since the takeover.
The data shows that HISD's enrollment was declining by an average of about 2% each year in the five years prior to the state takeover in June 2023. Since then, the district's student enrollment has declined by about 4% each year, largely driven by enrollment declines at the 130 NES campuses.
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HISD's fall snapshot data shows that about 75% of its campuses reported year-over-year enrollment declines in the 2024-25 school year. The district lost nearly 7,400 students in 2024, which was the largest year-over-year overall enrollment decline in the district since the COVID-19 pandemic.
Duncan Klussmann, an assistant professor at the University of Houston, said while improving academic performance should continue to be a priority for HISD, the district's growing enrollment declines will have "significant financial implications" if they continue.
HISD needs to find a balance between addressing student outcomes and paying more attention to its declining enrollment, he said.
"As policy makers focus much more on student achievement and the STAAR test, that's not necessarily what parents align to or what they want their child's experience to be," Klussmann said. "(NES is) a very innovative approach and has been very successful in producing higher test scores. That's what it's designed to do, but that is not what every parent is looking for."
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TEA data shows that 13 of the 15 schools with the largest percentage enrollment declines were NES campuses during the state takeover. In the five years before the takeover, only seven of the 15 schools with the largest enrollment declines were campuses that are now part of the NES model.
De Zavala Elementary School has reported an average yearly student enrollment decrease of 17% in the two years since the state takeover - the largest decline of any HISD campus. The NES school had previously reported that enrollment was declining by about 7% each year before the state's intervention into the district.
HISD launched the NES model at 28 campuses during the 2023-24 academic year, along with 57 campuses known as NES-aligned schools. The district expanded the systemic reform program to 130 schools in the 2024-25 academic year, largely based on each school's unofficial state A-F accountability ratings.
The NES model includes a standardized curriculum that teachers must follow, the conversion of libraries to "Team Centers," and new "Dyad" and "Art of Thinking" courses. The campuses also have longer hours, timed lessons, higher pay for educators, additional staff who provide support for teachers and less autonomy.
ENROLLMENT DECLINES: HISD lost more than 30,000 students in past decade as charter, suburban enrollment grew
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State-appointed Superintendent Mike Miles previously told the Chronicle that while HISD is always trying to grow the number of students enrolled in the district, the district's priority is ensuring that all schools are high-functioning and earning "A" and "B" ratings from the Texas Education Agency.
HISD reported that the number of D- and F-rated campuses decreased from 121 to 41 and the number of A- and B-rated schools increased from 93 in 2023 to 170 in 2024 during the first year of the state takeover. The TEA plans to release ratings for the 2024-25 academic year in August.
"Over time, as (parents) see the trend in the right direction and the principals and teachers talking up their schools, I think that's when we'll see a change," Miles said.
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Special education enrollment gains
While overall student enrollment has seen sharper declines, HISD has reported larger increases in the number and percentage of special education students enrolled in the district during the first two years of the state takeover compared to prior years, according to the Chronicle's analysis of TEA data.
The percentage of special education students in HISD increased by an average rate of 3% per year during the five years prior to the intervention. However, in the two years since the takeover began, special education enrollment has increased by approximately 8% each year.
Approximately 12% of students in HISD received special education services during the 2024-25 year, which is up from about 7% during the 2017-18 year. The district has also reported a net increase of 3,000 students receiving special education services during the takeover, even amid overall enrollment declines.
HISD did not respond to a request for comment on why the share of special education students has grown since the takeover, although the increase coincides with a statewide growth in special education enrollment after state lawmakers removed a 8.5% cap on special education enrollment in 2017.
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{ "__type": "devHubFreeformEmbed", "__id": "Datawrapper", "__fallbackImage": "https://datawrapper.dwcdn.net/nz2fe/mobile.png", "__data": { "datawrapper_id": "nz2fe" } }Virginia Snodgrass Rangel, an associate professor in the University of Houston's College of Education, said the change in HISD's special education enrollment is "dramatic" but it's unclear how much is attributable to the district's current efforts to reform its long-struggling special education department.
"Part of this increase could be just that they're doing a better job, and they're identifying kids that should have been identified before," Snodgrass Rangel said. "It also could be that the kids who are leaving are less likely to need special education services because private schools are not required to service students who have an (Individualized Education Program.)
The percentage of special education students has increased at both New Education System and non-NES campuses, although the increase has been larger in non-NES schools. At NES campuses, there has been a 7% increase during the first two years of the state takeover, while non-NES campuses have reported a 28% increase in the same time period.
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HISD reported that the percentage of economically disadvantaged students in the district has dropped about two percentage points since the state takeover, but it's typical for the district's rate of economically disadvantaged students to fluctuate between around 78% and 80%.
Approximately 77.8% of HISD students were economically disadvantaged in the 2024-25 year, which means they qualified for free or reduced-price lunch based on their household size and income. Two years earlier, about 79.5% of HISD students were considered economically disadvantaged.
The district's overall racial demographics have seen even smaller shifts since the takeover, with the share of Black students in the district dropping by 1 percentage point over two years. The shares of Asian and other racial demographic groups have increased representation slightly, while Hispanic and white student shares have remained the same.
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